Tough Race

Who could have guessed that 2014, one of the worst years in cinema history, would actually end up with a tight race for the finish line at the Academy Awards?

Actually, it’s crazier than that. Due to The Oscars egregious history of splitting the Best Picture and Best Director awards, there are four equally possible outcomes for tonight.

Best Picture: Boyhood

Best Director: Richard Linklater

Best Picture: Birdman

Best Director: Alejandro G. Iñárritu

Best Picture: Boyhood

Best Director: Alejandro G. Iñárritu

Best Picture: Birdman

Best Director: Richard Linklater

What do I think?

It really is one of the toughest races I think I’ve ever seen. Normally Best Picture comes down to a big budget extravaganza versus a small budget “importance project”. It’s almost a dead certainty that the smaller picture will win, and the Academy will pat themselves on the back for rewarding the underdog. This year, though, Birdman is just about cheap enough to be considered “small budget” and Boyhood is definitely ambitious enough to constitute an eccentric gimmick. No matter what I decide, I have a 75% chance of being wrong. My goodness, what a minefield. Alright, here goes nothing…

Although I think Birdman is a better film, I do love Richard Linklater and would like to see him win his long-overdue award. Still, it doesn’t matter what I think. What matters is what the Academy thinks, so I have to try and think like them. I think that they’ll think that Birdman is better, as is Inarritu. But they know that we all know that, and we know that they know it because it’s won so many awards so far. This will work in Boyhood‘s favour, as it makes Boyhood the underdog after all, and the Academy will favour a firm favourite like Linklater, ulimately handing over the award as a favour to him.

The logic is clearly sound, so maybe my odds are better after all. No?